Arsenal
2026/27 spending-room estimate
Season view
ProjectionSquad-cost basis2026/27 — Premier League SCR projection. This is the live view used across the rest of this page. What does this mean?
Forward-looking squad-cost estimate for 2026/27, built from public filings, reported transfer data, provider wage estimates and PSRwatch assumptions. Subject to transfer, wage, revenue and rule changes. These are unofficial PSRwatch estimates — final regulatory decisions sit with the leagues. Methodology
PSRwatch estimates Arsenal's 2026/27 squad-cost ratio at 79% of football income — below the 85% Green Threshold. That leaves roughly £264m of annual squad-cost room before the 115% Red Threshold. Model updated: 28 Jul 2026 · Accounts data refreshed: 19 Jun 2026. These are independent PSRwatch estimates, not official Premier League calculations.
Today's read
Arsenal are estimated to be below the 85% Green Threshold.
They have around £264m of room before the 115% Red Threshold, with an SCR estimate of 79% against the 115% Red Threshold (the 85% Green Threshold is the secondary levy line).
They are below the 85% Green Threshold, so no levy or sporting sanction applies on current estimates.
Confirmed transfers this summer have reduced remaining room by about £17m (+2.3 percentage points).
The old-PSR model is not expected to be the biggest issue in the 2023/24-2025/26 closeout window.
Room to the Red Threshold
Annual squad-cost room before the 115% Red Threshold — the primary line where sporting-sanction (points) risk starts.
The 115% Red Threshold is the primary sporting-sanction line. The 85% Green Threshold is the secondary levy / allowance line.
Room before the 85% Green Threshold, above which a levy / allowance charge (not a points deduction) applies to overspend.
Accounts wage bill (all staff), annual transfer-fee costs and other squad-cost items.
Why this club is in this position
2026/27 · Premier League Squad Cost Ratio — a PSRwatch model, not an official league finding.
| Football income | £735m |
| Squad cost | £582m |
| — of which wages | £362m |
| — of which amortisation | £197m |
| Player trading contribution | £24m |
| Room to Green Threshold (85%) | +£43m |
| Room to Red Threshold (115%) | +£264m |
- High wage bill — £362m a year is 62% of squad cost
- High amortisation — past transfer fees still cost £197m a year
- A sale would improve headroom — sale profit counts in the model straight away
- Higher football income adds room — every £1m of income covers more squad cost
- Lower wages (departures or expiring deals) reduce squad cost fastest
- Profitable three-year window — losses are not the issue
- No eligible owner equity found in the filings, so the £15m baseline allowance applies
Transfer effect
This table translates confirmed transfer activity into spending-room impact. A transfer fee is normally spread across the player's contract as an annual transfer-fee cost. Wages, signing fees, agent fees, loans and sales then change the live squad-cost position.
| Player / item | Move | From / To | Fee | Contract | Annual transfer-fee cost | Book profit/loss | SCR movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illan Meslier | In | Leeds United | £0m | 3 yrs | £0m | £0m | +0.9pp |
| Jakub Kiwior | Out | FC Porto | £14m | Sale/no fee spread | £0m | £9m | -1.0pp |
| Karl Hein | Out | SV Werder Bremen | £3m | Sale/no fee spread | £0m | £2m | -0.7pp |
| Leandro Trossard | Out | Besiktas JK | £15m | Sale/no fee spread | £0m | £10m | -1.1pp |
| Piero Hincapié | In | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | £34m | 4 yrs | £9m | £0m | +2.5pp |
| Tommy Setford | In | Arsenal FC U21 | Undisclosed | 4 yrs | ~£5m | ~£0m | +1.7pp |
~ Undisclosed fees use a PSRwatch modelling estimate to derive squad-cost figures. Undisclosed or estimated sale fees are not counted as real football income until reported or filed.
Football income
The SCR estimate depends on football income, so PSRwatch starts from the latest filed accounts and then estimates the 2026/27 income base.
2024/25
£691m low / £780m high
Built from filed accounts or reported sale fees only — undisclosed-fee estimates never count as income.
Latest filed revenue baseline: 2024/25.
Central forecast starts from the committed club forecast and splits football income using a league-typical modelled mix (about 18% matchday / 47% broadcasting in the Premier League) — the club's own filed mix will be used once its accounts disclose one.
Premier League participation is included in the broadcasting and commercial mix.
UEFA participation adds a separate revenue line and UEFA SCR exposure.
Low/high range is a deterministic +/-6% sensitivity around central football income.
Forecast income already clears the applicable Premier League floors (income >= GBP 175m, broadcasting >= GBP 95m), so no uplift was needed.
Squad-cost breakdown
Squad cost combines the club's accounts wage bill (all staff — a conservative stand-in for the League's player-and-coach definition), annual transfer-fee costs and estimated agent, signing, loan and bonus costs, compared with football income to give the SCR estimate.
From the club's filed accounts: total staff costs including non-playing staff, bonuses and employer NI. The League's squad-cost test counts player and head-coach pay, so this numerator errs conservative.
Old PSR result
No eligible owner funding is verified for this window, so PSRwatch uses the £15m baseline allowance — never an assumed maximum. Old PSR is the older three-year loss framework; it is no longer the live rule for 2026/27 squad-building. This is a public-data model, not an official league finding.
View detailed calculation
2023/24, 2024/25, 2025/26
GBP 5m per known PL/EFL season.
Total verified equity in the window — can exceed the amount the cap lets the model apply.
Capped at £90m above the baseline.
Room on the baseline allowance only.
Baseline + verified owner equity. Unavailable without verified funding.
If fully owner-funded to £105m — a labelled scenario, never the headline without verified funding.
League mix drives PL/EFL loss cap.
Owner funding note: Owner funding can affect financial resilience and, under the old PSR framework, support permitted losses. It does not automatically create new squad-cost room under the revenue-linked SCR model. Old PSR allows higher losses only where secure funding/equity is evidenced; owner and shareholder loans are excluded unless validly converted to eligible equity. Before undisclosed/private adjustments.
UEFA rules
UEFA rules are shown separately because clubs in European competition may face a stricter squad-cost threshold than the Premier League.
70% threshold
Room (£67m)
Player ledger
Player-level squad-cost model from contract, wage and player-registration cost data.
Per-player wages are estimated gross fixed salaries from public sources. They sum well below the accounts wage bill used in the squad-cost estimate above, because that bill also covers bonuses, employer NI and non-playing staff.
| Player | Position | Contract end | Capitalised cost | Wage estimate | Annual transfer-fee cost | Annual squad cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya | Goalkeeper | 2028-06-30 | £0m | £5m | £5m | £10m |
| Illan Meslier | Goalkeeper | 2028-06-30 | £0m | £6m | £1m | £7m |
| Kepa Arrizabalaga | Goalkeeper | 2028-06-30 | £0m | £3m | £1m | £4m |
| Tommy Setford | Goalkeeper | 2028-06-30 | £19m | £5m | £0m | £5m |
| William Saliba | Centre-Back | 2030-06-30 | £2m | £13m | £15m | £28m |
| Gabriel | Centre-Back | 2029-06-30 | £1m | £8m | £11m | £19m |
| Piero Hincapié | Centre-Back | 2031-06-30 | £34m | £10m | £8m | £18m |
| Cristhian Mosquera | Centre-Back | 2030-06-30 | £1m | £3m | £6m | £9m |
| Riccardo Calafiori | Left-Back | 2029-06-30 | £1m | £6m | £8m | £15m |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly | Left-Back | 2030-06-30 | £1m | £2m | £7m | £9m |
| Jurriën Timber | Right-Back | 2028-06-30 | £1m | £5m | £11m | £15m |
| Ben White | Right-Back | 2028-06-30 | £0m | £8m | £5m | £12m |
| Martín Zubimendi | Defensive Midfield | 2030-06-30 | £1m | £4m | £11m | £15m |
| Christian Nørgaard | Defensive Midfield | 2027-06-30 | £0m | £3m | £1m | £4m |
| Declan Rice | Central Midfield | 2028-06-30 | £2m | £12m | £18m | £31m |
| Mikel Merino | Central Midfield | 2028-06-30 | £0m | £7m | £4m | £11m |
| Martin Ødegaard | Attacking Midfield | 2028-06-30 | £1m | £12m | £10m | £22m |
| Eberechi Eze | Attacking Midfield | 2029-06-30 | £1m | £9m | £10m | £19m |
| Ethan Nwaneri | Attacking Midfield | 2030-06-30 | £1m | £4m | £5m | £9m |
| Fábio Vieira | Attacking Midfield | 2027-06-30 | £0m | £2m | £3m | £5m |
| Gabriel Martinelli | Left Winger | 2027-06-30 | £1m | £9m | £7m | £16m |
| Reiss Nelson | Left Winger | 2027-06-30 | £0m | £5m | £1m | £6m |
| Bukayo Saka | Right Winger | 2030-06-30 | £2m | £16m | £17m | £32m |
| Noni Madueke | Right Winger | 2030-06-30 | £1m | £8m | £8m | £15m |
| Max Dowman | Right Winger | 2027-06-30 | £0m | £2m | £5m | £6m |
| Viktor Gyökeres | Centre-Forward | 2030-06-30 | £1m | £10m | £10m | £20m |
| Kai Havertz | Centre-Forward | 2028-06-30 | £1m | £15m | £8m | £23m |
| Gabriel Jesus | Centre-Forward | 2027-06-30 | £0m | £14m | £3m | £16m |
Methodology and sources
Premier League SCR is estimated as squad costs divided by football income. Spending between 85% and 115% of football income attracts a financial levy on the overspend; crossing 115% brings a fixed 6-point deduction plus 1 further point per GBP 6.5m spent beyond the 115% capacity.
Squad costs use the club's accounts wage bill (all staff — conservative vs the League's player-and-coach definition), annual transfer-fee cost, and estimated agent, signing, loan and bonus costs.
Transfer fees are spread across contract life. Sales compare proceeds with remaining book value to estimate book profit or loss.
Revenue forecasts start from the latest filed accounts and committed club forecast, then split 2026/27 football income into matchday, broadcasting, commercial, UEFA and player-trading lines.
Old PSR is retained only as a 2023/24-2025/26 closeout layer. Owner funding can support the old loss allowance when available and capped, but it does not create new SCR revenue capacity.
Each public snapshot is generated from PSRwatch-owned JSON files after validation, with the last good snapshot kept if an upstream refresh fails.
Arsenal latest accounts extract (2024/25) - Accounts values are parsed from Companies House filings where available, then normalised into the committed full dataset.
PSRwatch 2026/27 squad-cost forecast - Forecast uses committed income, wage, annual transfer-fee cost and transfer assumptions with deterministic rule calculations.
Spotted something wrong for Arsenal? Report an issue.