Backtesting · published error, not marketing
PSRwatch's forecasts against the accounts filed afterwards
Every forecast PSRwatch publishes is frozen, write-once, before the accounts for that period are filed. When the filing lands and is parsed, the frozen figure is scored against it, per club and per line, and the error is published here. A period whose filing has not arrived is shown as waiting; it is never scored against a model that has already absorbed the filing, because that would fake accuracy.
Model updated: 12 Sept 2026 · backtest last run 12 Sept 2026
Quick answer
No filed accounts have yet landed against a frozen forecast: 80 frozen forecasts across 20 clubs and 20 pre-filing snapshots of the public headline are waiting. The first 2025/26 filings are expected from early 2027; this page fills itself as they arrive.
Status from the committed backtest run: insufficient-data. Method on the methodology page.
Scored against filed accounts
Nothing scored yet. This is the honest state: the frozen forecasts below exist precisely so that the first filed accounts can be compared with what PSRwatch said beforehand, and the comparison is published here automatically when a filing is parsed.
Frozen forecasts waiting for a filing
What the financial model said, frozen at the time, for periods whose accounts have not yet been filed and parsed. Write-once: re-freezing the same club, period and reason is a no-op.
| Club | Period | Frozen | Basis | Revenue | Staff costs | Player amortisation | Pre-tax result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £195m | - | £0m | - |
| AFC Bournemouth | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £197m | - | £0m | - |
| AFC Bournemouth | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £195m | - | £0m | - |
| AFC Bournemouth | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £195m | - | £0m | - |
 Arsenal | FY2026 | 20 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £421m | £347m | £0m | - |
| Arsenal | FY2027 | 20 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £378m | £347m | £0m | - |
| Arsenal | FY2028 | 20 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £358m | £347m | £0m | - |
| Arsenal | FY2029 | 20 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £408m | £347m | £0m | - |
 Aston Villa | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £320m | £273m | £81m | - |
| Aston Villa | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £316m | £273m | £67m | - |
| Aston Villa | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £310m | £273m | £49m | - |
| Aston Villa | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £310m | £273m | £33m | - |
 Brentford | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £171m | - | £84m | - |
| Brentford | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £171m | - | £63m | - |
| Brentford | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £171m | - | £14m | - |
| Brentford | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £171m | - | £0m | - |
 Brighton & Hove Albion | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £195m | - | £0m | - |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £199m | - | £0m | - |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £195m | - | £0m | - |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £195m | - | £0m | - |
 Chelsea | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £450m | £359m | £0m | - |
| Chelsea | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £434m | £359m | £0m | - |
| Chelsea | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £434m | £359m | £0m | - |
| Chelsea | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £434m | £359m | £0m | - |
 Coventry City | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £37m | - | £0m | - |
| Coventry City | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £122m | - | £0m | - |
| Coventry City | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £122m | - | £0m | - |
| Coventry City | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £122m | - | £0m | - |
 Crystal Palace | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £170m | - | £0m | - |
| Crystal Palace | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £168m | - | £0m | - |
| Crystal Palace | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £166m | - | £0m | - |
| Crystal Palace | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £166m | - | £0m | - |
 Everton | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £176m | - | £0m | - |
| Everton | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £176m | - | £0m | - |
| Everton | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £176m | - | £0m | - |
| Everton | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £176m | - | £0m | - |
 Fulham | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £188m | £167m | £0m | - |
| Fulham | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £188m | £167m | £0m | - |
| Fulham | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £188m | £167m | £0m | - |
| Fulham | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £188m | £167m | £0m | - |
 Hull City | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £110m | £37m | £0m | - |
| Hull City | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £109m | £37m | £0m | - |
| Hull City | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £109m | £37m | £0m | - |
| Hull City | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £109m | £37m | £0m | - |
 Ipswich Town | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £151m | £77m | £0m | - |
| Ipswich Town | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £151m | £77m | £0m | - |
| Ipswich Town | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £151m | £77m | £0m | - |
| Ipswich Town | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £151m | £77m | £0m | - |
 Leeds United | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £227m | - | £0m | - |
| Leeds United | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £227m | - | £0m | - |
| Leeds United | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £227m | - | £0m | - |
| Leeds United | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £227m | - | £0m | - |
 Liverpool | FY2026 | 17 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £729m | £462m | £153m | £30m |
| Liverpool | FY2027 | 17 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £726m | £455m | £155m | -£108m |
| Liverpool | FY2028 | 17 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £762m | £468m | £144m | -£48m |
| Liverpool | FY2029 | 17 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £782m | £482m | £151m | -£62m |
 Manchester City | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £608m | - | £145m | - |
| Manchester City | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £605m | - | £145m | - |
| Manchester City | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £595m | - | £145m | - |
| Manchester City | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £595m | - | £145m | - |
 Manchester United | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £818m | - | £0m | - |
| Manchester United | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £850m | - | £0m | - |
| Manchester United | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £818m | - | £0m | - |
| Manchester United | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £818m | - | £0m | - |
 Newcastle United | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £326m | £243m | £0m | - |
| Newcastle United | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £316m | £243m | £0m | - |
| Newcastle United | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £316m | £243m | £0m | - |
| Newcastle United | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £316m | £243m | £0m | - |
 Nottingham Forest | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £196m | £167m | £0m | - |
| Nottingham Forest | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £190m | £167m | £0m | - |
| Nottingham Forest | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £190m | £167m | £0m | - |
| Nottingham Forest | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £190m | £167m | £0m | - |
 Sunderland | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £185m | - | £0m | - |
| Sunderland | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £188m | - | £0m | - |
| Sunderland | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £185m | - | £0m | - |
| Sunderland | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £185m | - | £0m | - |
 Tottenham Hotspur | FY2026 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | estimate | £539m | £256m | £0m | -£7m |
| Tottenham Hotspur | FY2027 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £515m | £256m | £0m | -£32m |
| Tottenham Hotspur | FY2028 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £515m | £256m | £0m | -£32m |
| Tottenham Hotspur | FY2029 | 21 Aug 2026 · manual | forecast | £515m | £256m | £0m | -£32m |
Pre-filing snapshots of the public headline
Captured by the Companies House sync before each club's next filing is fetched: what the public squad-cost headline said, and what inputs it had at the time. Scored by the Companies House backtest once the filing is parsed.
| Club | Period end | Captured | Revenue est. | Wages est. | Amortisation est. | Football income | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth | 2026-06-30 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £205m | £171m | £76m | £209m | 128% |
| Arsenal | 2026-05-31 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £721m | £348m | £188m | £735m | 79.1% |
| Aston Villa | 2026-06-30 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £431m | £194m | £0m | £440m | 71.6% |
| Brentford | 2026-06-30 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £208m | £141m | £53m | £212m | 99.3% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2026-06-30 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £265m | £171m | £90m | £271m | 104.8% |
| Chelsea | 2026-06-30 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £451m | £319m | £233m | £460m | 130.5% |
| Coventry City | 2026-05-31 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £35m | £29m | £15m | £172m | 54.9% |
| Crystal Palace | 2026-06-30 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £234m | £157m | £59m | £239m | 98.2% |
| Everton | 2026-06-30 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £214m | £149m | £56m | £218m | 102% |
| Fulham | 2026-06-30 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £234m | £180m | £68m | £238m | 112.6% |
| Hull City | 2026-06-30 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £26m | £40m | £11m | £176m | 48.3% |
| Ipswich Town | 2026-06-30 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £90m | £83m | £33m | £203m | 69.7% |
| Leeds United | 2026-06-30 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £140m | £101m | £50m | £177m | 92.4% |
| Liverpool | 2026-05-31 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £831m | £462m | £129m | £848m | 75.6% |
| Manchester City | 2026-06-30 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £786m | £441m | £187m | £802m | 85.7% |
| Manchester United | 2026-06-30 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £762m | £307m | £216m | £777m | 73.1% |
| Newcastle United | 2026-06-30 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £402m | £263m | £110m | £410m | 98.5% |
| Nottingham Forest | 2026-06-30 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £226m | £167m | £76m | £260m | 101.3% |
| Sunderland | 2026-07-31 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £47m | £57m | £11m | £135m | 55% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2026-06-30 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-10-scr-v1 | £678m | £276m | £156m | £691m | 67.9% |
Why this page can be empty and still honest
Filed accounts arrive months after the season they describe. A forecast can only be scored once its period is audited and parsed, and PSRwatch refuses to score a forecast against a model that has already been reconciled to the same filing. Until then the frozen figures sit here in the open, with their dates, so the eventual comparison cannot be retrofitted. Figures are independent PSRwatch estimates, not official league figures.