Methodology
Where the numbers come from.
Four inputs power every PSRwatch estimate. Each one does a specific job, and each has honest limits.
PSRwatch combines four inputs: audited accounts from Companies House, transfer records from Transfermarkt, public wage data from Capology, and PSRwatch's own forecast modelling. Each source has one job, and where data is missing PSRwatch shows a clearly labelled estimate rather than a guess dressed up as fact.
Companies House: the audited anchor
Audited accounts filed at Companies House are the most reliable public record of a club's finances: revenue, wage bill, transfer-fee costs and profit or loss, all checked by auditors. Every PSRwatch estimate is anchored to a club's latest filing.
The limitation is delay. Accounts arrive months — sometimes more than a year — after the season they describe, which is why the rest of the model exists: to estimate the picture in the meantime. When a new filing lands, it becomes the yardstick the earlier estimates are scored against.
Transfermarkt: the transfer record
Transfermarkt provides the record of who moved where and, where fees were made public, for how much. PSRwatch uses it to track confirmed transfer activity and to spread each disclosed fee across the player's contract, which is how transfer spending counts towards squad cost.
Where a fee was never disclosed, it stays undisclosed. PSRwatch does not invent a figure, and any estimate that depends on an unknown fee carries that uncertainty openly rather than hiding it.
Capology: public wage data
Capology supplies publicly reported player wages, which form the largest single part of squad cost. Where a player's wage is public, PSRwatch uses it. Where it is not, PSRwatch fills the gap with a clearly labelled PSRwatch estimate — never an unlabelled guess.
If a data fetch fails, PSRwatch keeps using the last good snapshot rather than showing nothing or something broken, and says so: the age and freshness of every source is published on the data health page.
PSRwatch modelling: the forecast layer
The final input is PSRwatch's own modelling: deterministic revenue assumptions that project football income forward to 2026/27, and revenue uplifts for newly promoted clubs, whose income transforms almost overnight in the Premier League. These assumptions are the most judgement-based part of the model, which is why they are documented, backtested against later filings, and listed honestly on the limitations page.
What to cite PSRwatch for — and what not to
PSRwatch is a fair source for:
- Independent squad-cost and spending-room estimates, clearly labelled as estimates.
- Plain-English explanations of the squad-cost rules — the 85% levy line and the 115% points line.
- Transfer impact arithmetic: how a fee spread over a contract changes a club's yearly squad cost.
PSRwatch should not be cited for:
- Official PSR or squad-cost positions — those come only from the Premier League, EFL or UEFA.
- Confirmed values for undisclosed transfer fees — PSRwatch does not have them and does not invent them.
- Exact contract terms for individual players — public wage data is partial, and gaps are estimates.
Frequently asked questions
Are PSRwatch figures official?
No. PSRwatch figures are independent estimates built from public data. Official squad-cost and PSR calculations come only from the Premier League, EFL or UEFA.
What happens when a transfer fee is undisclosed?
It stays undisclosed. PSRwatch never invents a number for a fee that was not made public, and estimates that depend on that fee carry the uncertainty openly.
Where do the wage figures come from?
From Capology's public wage data where it is available. Where a player's wage is not public, PSRwatch shows a clearly labelled estimate instead, and the freshness of every source is published on the data health page.